Analytics
Paper trading
Yes is at 0.1%, down 4.9 points from 5% when the market opened on 14 Nov 2025.
The high was 18.4% on 21 Nov 2025 and the low 0.1% on 8 Jan 2026. A week ago Yes was at 2.2%; a month ago, 0.1%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 17% on 19 Nov 2025.
It is one of 12 markets under “How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?”.
$3.55 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $197.84K since listing. The order book holds $18.45K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $5 bought Yes and $294.83 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Silver Pioneer 4CFF with 2.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 17.7K. Ten wallets hold 77.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 79 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 14, 6:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 312 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 14 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 5.0% |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 17.67K |
| Silver Pioneer 4CFF | Yes | 2.34K |
| planktonXD | Yes | 1.72K |
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026
| Anne666 | Yes | 1.11K |
| Well-To-Do-Fail | Yes | 1.05K |
| FlashTradeOracle | Yes | 1K |
| BadgerWarBucks | Yes | 822.3 |
| balthazar | Yes | 801.33 |
| nryy | Yes | 725.43 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 609.48 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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