Analytics
Yes is at 2.6%, down 6.9 points from 9.5% when the market opened on 7 Mar 2026.
Across the 220 daily closes on record from 7 Mar 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 14% on 8 Mar 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 7 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.3%; a month before, 2.2%. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 12.5% on 16 May 2026.
$195.71K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $15.19K, with a 2.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $715.48 bought Yes and $60.06K bought No; the largest was a $2.07K buy of No at 97.2¢.
The largest Yes position is Xendo1 with 7.4K shares; the largest No position is phantomscr1pt with 2.3K. Ten wallets hold 64.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 5:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 220 points, 7 Mar 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | 9.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Xendo1 | Yes | 7.37K |
| phantomscr1pt | No | 2.26K |
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 2.13K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026
| tywed |
| No |
| 1.89K |
| rzgtrader | Yes | 1.33K |
| machine321 | Yes | 1.06K |
| RibeyeStack | No | 817.88 |
| Thunderous-Platelet | No | 799.99 |
| Krass | No | 799.98 |
| muddyrc | No | 799.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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