Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 32% on 12 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 12 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 39.5% on 14 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 22% on 16 Jan 2026. $77.01K traded over the market's life.
95 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 12 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jan 2026 | 32.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Shocked-Prospect | Yes | 864.59 |
| Loose-Shop | Yes | 555.56 |
| Several-Gliding | Yes | 418.24 |
| Scratchy-Barracks | Yes | 378.49 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-usisrael-target-in-iran-by-january-31
| Luminous-Interviewer | Yes | 377.15 |
| Ivory Comet D2B9 | Yes | 281.69 |
| tc06qda | Yes | 244 |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 231.99 |
| tjdlps | Yes | 200 |
| Firsthand-Knowledge | Yes | 199.66 |
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