Analytics
Resolved No on 17 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 79%. Yes opened at 24.5% on 14 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 14 May 2025 to 17 May 2025, the highest close was 67.4% on 16 May 2025 and the lowest 18.5% on 15 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 49 points up, to 67.4% on 16 May 2025. $287.5K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 10, 5:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 14 May 2025 – 17 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 May 2025 | 24.5% |
| 17 May 2025 | 20.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Azure Kestrel DA0E | Yes | 1K |
| RZ10 | Yes | 596.72 |
| lucas.jpeg | Yes | 462.82 |
| hjehdh | Yes | 282.22 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 13, 4:00 PM ET, and May 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-friday-697
| Jessew | Yes | 4.76 |
| sakovec1967 | Yes | 2.22 |
| lissartter | Yes | 0.1 |
| WashTrade | Yes | 0.03 |
| lestAAAA | No | 0.03 |
| Trading4Fridge | No | 0.03 |
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