Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 30 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 30 May 2026 to 4 Jul 2026, the highest close was 13.5% on 30 May 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 8% on 31 May 2026. $206.65K traded over the market's life.
75 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 30 May 2026 – 4 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 May 2026 | 13.5% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Divina-Intuitio | Yes | 9.54K |
| Embellished-Acorn | Yes | 3.59K |
| anotherpatrick | Yes | 3K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory. For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify. Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war. Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify. Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-by
| Bold Kestrel 672C | Yes | 2.24K |
| Experienced-Healthcare | Yes | 2.17K |
| Glass-Sprat | Yes | 2.02K |
| Vickyvall | Yes | 1.93K |
| Youngcouple10 | Yes | 1.72K |
| Unruly-Thunderbolt | Yes | 1.4K |
| kohalacoastgabe | Yes | 1.06K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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