Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 41%. Yes opened at 50% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 2 Apr 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 75% on 31 Mar 2026 and the lowest 48.5% on 27 Mar 2026. $21.61K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 15, 11:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 2 Apr 2026, chart shows 40%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 2 Apr 2026 | 59.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| generalVR | Yes | 492.8 |
| daroghi | Yes | 59.99 |
| matthew1025 | Yes | 58.63 |
| Serega-pro | Yes | 56.51 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-on-627
| taripod | Yes | 50 |
| TooYoungToWin | Yes | 44.94 |
| Nivnivdavid | Yes | 34.88 |
| raymon1 | Yes | 20 |
| SSE-1 | Yes | 15.6 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 5 |
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