Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 92.5%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 5 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 27.5% on 5 Mar 2026 and the low 7.5% on 28 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 23.5% on 9 Mar 2026. $36.05K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 6:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 17 points · 5 Mar 2026 – 28 Mar 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Mar 2026 | 27.5% |
| 28 Mar 2026 | 7.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| arigold | Yes | 514.48 |
| Solalpha | Yes | 292.84 |
| twobe3 | Yes | 250 |
| 5atka | Yes | 148.86 |
| Teixeira10 | Yes | 100 |
| Flickering-Tract | Yes | 71 |
| Bingo-Bango | Yes | 54.7 |
| Dallara | Yes | 48.2 |
| Adorable-Tripod | Yes | 43.07 |
| WolvesAyeWe | Yes | 42.65 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-iran-strike-by-march-31
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