Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 16 Oct 2023. Before it settled, the high was 12% on 22 Oct 2023 and the low 1.1% on 28 Nov 2023. $28.09K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 26, 3:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 78 points, 16 Oct 2023 – 1 Jan 2024, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2023 | 6.5% |
| 1 Jan 2024 | 2.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially declares war on Israel by December 31, 2023 11:59 PM ET. Declarations of war must be clear, and explicit. The market will resolve to "No" if no such official declaration of war is made by the specified date. Note that Israel or Hamas declaring war is not considered for this market. Further note if e.g. Hezbollah declared war, it will not satisfy a “Yes” resolution - only Iran itself declaring war will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-iran-officially-join-the-war-in-2023
| Spacecabbage | Yes | 15 |
| hehhhhh | No | 0.01 |
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