Analytics
Resolved Yes on 22 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 76% on 10 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 10 Jun 2026 to 22 Jun 2026, the highest close was 100% on 19 Jun 2026 and the lowest 31% on 16 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 59 points up, to 99.8% on 18 Jun 2026. $500.12K traded over the market's life.
58 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 22, 8:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 10 Jun 2026 – 22 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2026 | 76.0% |
| 22 Jun 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Creepy-Parser | No | 100K |
| Revolving-Sleep | No | 5.26K |
| Mustafalafel | No | 4.81K |
| LulaVaiPerder | No | 3.89K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
| siick | No | 3.57K |
| Ruukasu | No | 1K |
| Little-Improvement | No | 1K |
| Intentional-Leptocephalus | No | 1K |
| Ahllamelech | No | 1K |
| garkein | No | 600 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829
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