Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 13% on 15 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 80 daily closes on record from 15 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 21.6% on 13 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 13.7% on 11 Nov 2025. $207.52K traded over the market's life.
88 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 80 points, 15 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2025 | 13.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| God | Yes | 6.67K |
| OpinionOracle | Yes | 5.66K |
| BobtheBuildor | Yes | 2.21K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/india-strike-on-pakistan-by
| slayervault | Yes | 1.97K |
| roaringlion1 | Yes | 1.82K |
| sabbinadu | Yes | 1.7K |
| Incredible-Toga | Yes | 943.35 |
| nikimiki12 | Yes | 849.59 |
| Aghora | Yes | 815.69 |
| Jbsay | Yes | 613.69 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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