Analytics
Yes is at 64%, up 32 points from 32.5% when the market opened on 6 Aug 2026.
Across the 78 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 86.5% on 5 Sep 2026 and the lowest 12% on 11 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 57.5%; a month before, 82.5%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points up, to 78% on 27 Aug 2026.
Imelda Castro Castro is the favourite of the 21 outcomes in “Sinaloa Governor Election Winner”, ahead of Mario Zamora Gastélum at 24.3%.
$215.26 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $19.72K since listing. The order book holds $776.51, with a 16.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 323 trades, $4.33K bought Yes and $1.92K bought No; the largest was a $1.28K sell of Yes at 85.3¢.
The largest Yes position is Crimson Scout DF5C with 1.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.5K. Ten wallets hold 95.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 7 Jun 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 78 points, 6 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | 32.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 64.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.51K |
| Crimson Scout DF5C | Yes | 1.79K |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 1.03K |
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sinaloa-governor-election-winner-20260803170329
9 more outcomes, none above 0.4%.
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 728.73 |
| Fluo | No | 337.55 |
| musicenthusiast | Yes | 195.75 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 112.26 |
| Yeet12 | Yes | 100 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 96.23 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 65.66 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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