Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 1 May 2026 (12 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 30.5% on 27 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 4.5% on 28 Apr 2026. $19.73K traded over the market's life.
31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 5:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 15.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cassino | Yes | 1.59K |
| hrmy | Yes | 1.42K |
| DOLL | Yes | 576.02 |
| Keen Falcon D40C | Yes | 357.46 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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| acal | Yes | 299.27 |
| CoreWriter | Yes | 209.37 |
| Ferg50 | Yes | 200 |
| pasteroni | Yes | 100 |
| joshstevens123 | Yes | 100 |
| STEAM | Yes | 99.91 |
