Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 92%. Yes opened at 41% on 17 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 17 Mar 2026 to 20 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 41% on 17 Mar 2026 and the lowest 8% on 20 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 15% on 18 Mar 2026.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 21, 4:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 17 Mar 2026 – 20 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Mar 2026 | 41.0% |
| 20 Mar 2026 | 8.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.71K |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 200 |
| Starchy-Sabre | Yes | 169.9 |
| Sane-Ambition | Yes | 56.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click “Apps” at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to “Top Paid Apps” and click “See All.” Then under “Paid Apps” in the “Top Charts” section, you’ll see the list that will be used as the resolution source for this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-paid).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/1-paid-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-march-20
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 54.21 |
| Pinguin.07 | Yes | 33.33 |
| Married-Tangerine | Yes | 30 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 29.99 |
| 0x777777777 | Yes | 28.33 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 9.51 |
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