Will Hong Kong have between 500-525mm of precipitation in July?

Resolved

No, settled Aug 3, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.2K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 3, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 3 Aug 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 9 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 26 daily closes on record from 9 Jul 2026 to 3 Aug 2026, the highest close was 44% on 10 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 4% on 16 Jul 2026. $1.23K traded over the market's life.

18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 3, 6:19 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 9 Jul 2026 – 3 Aug 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
9 Jul 2026	43.5%
3 Aug 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.58K
balthazar	Yes	399.99
Deafening-Possible	Yes	150
Rokokoraccoon	Yes	100

10 of 18 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.