Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 6 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 142 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 29 Mar 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37.5% on 28 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 21 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 37.5% on 28 Nov 2025. $906.59K traded over the market's life.
153 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 18, 12:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 142 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 29 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 20.5% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Youthful-Pattern | Yes | 37.46K |
| shaiimaa | Yes | 19.05K |
| WorldOrder2000 | Yes | 8.55K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31
| Dual-Globe | Yes | 5.46K |
| lymagics | Yes | 3.64K |
| Fredl | Yes | 2.65K |
| garlicnaaaan | Yes | 2.39K |
| Satisfied-Designation | Yes | 2.39K |
| arablounge | No | 1.38K |
| naivemxchine | Yes | 1.2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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