Analytics
Resolved Yes on 30 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 88%. Yes opened at 45.5% on 21 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 21 Mar 2026 to 28 Mar 2026, the highest close was 88% on 28 Mar 2026 and the lowest 45.5% on 21 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 74% on 22 Mar 2026. $41.55K traded over the market's life.
48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 31, 10:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 21 Mar 2026 – 28 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | 45.5% |
| 28 Mar 2026 | 88.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Equal-Buffalo | No | 1K |
| higgsfields | No | 931.81 |
| Ugly-Kill | No | 368.75 |
| juojuo | No | 307.32 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hezbollah-military-action-against-israel-on
| ygkvgb | No | 298.66 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 200 |
| 5atka | No | 200 |
| tmaga | No | 146.23 |
| PrimePenguin | No | 139.87 |
| bhtft | No | 125 |
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