Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.2%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 26 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 100 daily closes on record from 26 Nov 2025 to 4 Mar 2026, the highest close was 99.2% on 3 Mar 2026 and the lowest 41.5% on 27 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 69.5% on 9 Dec 2025. $7.66K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 5, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 100 points, 26 Nov 2025 – 4 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2025 | 50.5% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | 99.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FrankyFourFingers | No | 380.25 |
| qunlinchun | No | 218.13 |
| biyangou | No | 190 |
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tx-28-democratic-primary-winner
| No |
| 180.83 |
| cangchenshun | No | 165.26 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 165 |
| oliman2 | No | 150 |
| bengjifei | No | 122.67 |
| Azure Meteor 1EAD | No | 107.66 |
| Remarkable-Redesign | No | 102 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
