Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 21 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 8 Aug 2026.
Across the 80 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 84.5% on 21 Sep 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 71.5%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 39.5% on 1 Oct 2026.
$5.21K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $915.23, with a 7.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 177 trades, $584.26 bought Yes and $1.42K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 542 shares; the largest No position is Witty-Birch with 714. Ten wallets hold 94.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 12 Jan 2027, 74 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 80 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 27.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Witty-Birch | No | 713.54 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 541.85 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 300 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used. Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 101 |
| predictdogepepewif | Yes | 100 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 97.19 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 83.44 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 61.74 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 40 |
| Perypery | Yes | 29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-hawaii-reach-coral-bleaching-alert-level-1-by-december-31-2026-20260807170348514
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