Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?

politicsResolved

No, settled Oct 17, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$22.5K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 17, 2024 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved No on 17 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 85.5%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 12 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 12 Oct 2024 to 17 Oct 2024, the highest close was 27.5% on 12 Oct 2024 and the lowest 11.5% on 16 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 15.5% on 15 Oct 2024. $22.54K traded over the market's life.

9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 18, 5:36 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 12 Oct 2024 – 17 Oct 2024, chart shows 5%–35%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Oct 2024	27.5%
17 Oct 2024	14.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Gcut	Yes	150.12
HELLOW3W	Yes	6.25
sbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb	Yes	1.98

9 of 9 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 60% or greater chance likely of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast for any date between October 10 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive). This market will resolve to "No" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between October 10 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive). If neither threshold is met before the election this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will resolve as soon as either threshold is met, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range. If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the November 4 figures will not be considered. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Donald Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Kama Harris.