Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.2%. Yes opened at 18.1% on 11 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 11 Feb 2026 to 17 Feb 2026, the highest close was 18.1% on 11 Feb 2026 and the lowest 1.2% on 14 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 3.5% on 12 Feb 2026. $13.24K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 19, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 11 Feb 2026 – 17 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2026 | 18.1% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | 3.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 15.71K |
| rated | Yes | 2.04K |
| xlefgerx | Yes | 749.89 |
| pisia | Yes | 358.62 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public. This market will resolve to "Released before February 15" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public before February 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "No release by March 31" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt20-released-on-655
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 285.38 |
| flexproblem | Yes | 226.58 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 199.99 |
| Romeo005 | Yes | 111.64 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 99.99 |
| 0xSPeY | Yes | 75.47 |
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