Analytics
Yes is at 4.9%, down 7.1 points from 12% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 23 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 12% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.6% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.4%. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 6% on 5 Oct 2026.
Google ranks third of the 16 outcomes in “Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of November?”. Anthropic leads at 75.5%; OpenAI is at 15.5%.
$91.54 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.25K since listing. The order book holds $768.5, with a 5.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 34 trades, $27.6 bought Yes and $522.2 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 312 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 668.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 34 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 12.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 668.46 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 311.51 |
| X10X10 | Yes | 140.24 |
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-code-arena-webdev-ai-model-end-of-november-2026
4 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 82 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 66.62 |
| shangqian | No | 41.68 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 35.96 |
| graynotebook19 | Yes | 30 |
| PPMT | Yes | 23.46 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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