Analytics
Paper trading
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 5 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 83.5% on 7 Dec 2025 and the low 0.4% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 61.5% on 7 Jan 2026. $510.43K traded over the market's life.
325 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 90 points, 5 Nov 2025 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2025 | 38.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini 3 model achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gemini-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-november-30
| Yes |
| 1.93K |
| 8396239287 | Yes | 1.66K |
| alnecrp | Yes | 1.5K |
| 0x2fa10Nh18pHp | Yes | 1.34K |
| ASYM | Yes | 923 |
| JMV0 | Yes | 900 |
| mistertuna | Yes | 794 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page