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Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? | No | 409.58 | $0.710 | $331.15 | +$40.34 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?No | sell | 364.93 | $0.974 | $355.44 | Mar 6, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 541 |
| $0.914 |
| $494.43 |
| Mar 5, 2026 |
| GPT-5.4 released by March 9?Yes | buy | 976.93 | $0.923 | $902.01 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| GPT-5.4 released by March 5?Yes | buy | 633.5 | $0.898 | $569.13 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| GPT-5.4 released by March 5?Yes | buy | 1.94K | $0.877 | $1.7K | Mar 5, 2026 |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Yes | sell | 3.8K | $0.999 | $3.8K | Mar 5, 2026 |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Yes | buy | 600 | $0.817 | $490.46 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.2K | $0.800 | $2.56K | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?No | buy | 127.18 | $0.659 | $83.83 | Feb 13, 2026 |
 Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 211.54 | $0.900 | $190.39 | Feb 12, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?No | sell | 3.24K | $0.941 | $3.05K | Feb 5, 2026 |
 Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 531.02 | $0.850 | $451.37 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.65K | $0.840 | $1.39K | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?No | sell | 804.54 | $0.902 | $726.01 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | sell | 1.53K | $0.998 | $1.53K | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?No | sell | 639.68 | $0.908 | $580.97 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No | sell | 1.36K | $0.060 | $81.41 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?No | buy | 8K | $0.954 | $7.63K | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.32K | $0.140 | $185.41 | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No | buy | 1.5K | $0.999 | $1.5K | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?No | buy | 2.14K | $0.999 | $2.14K | Feb 1, 2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.500 | $500 | Jan 29, 2026 |
| GPT-5.3 released by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 401.22 | $0.942 | $377.77 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No | buy | 1.15K | $0.992 | $1.15K | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes | buy | 746.76 | $0.043 | $32.11 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes | buy | 1.23K | $0.239 | $293.92 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No | buy | 850 | $0.970 | $824.5 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 137.8 | $0.870 | $119.89 | Jan 20, 2026 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes | buy | 441.58 | $0.788 | $348.02 | Jan 10, 2026 |
 Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes | buy | 156.34 | $0.036 | $5.63 | Jan 10, 2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No | buy | 1.64K | $0.940 | $1.54K | Jan 10, 2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No | buy | 222.4 | $0.938 | $208.61 | Jan 10, 2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes | buy | 521.29 | $0.549 | $285.96 | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes | buy | 268 | $0.900 | $241.2 | Dec 17, 2025 |
 Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes | buy | 2.98K | $0.930 | $2.78K | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes | buy | 649.6 | $0.920 | $597.63 | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes | buy | 2.04K | $0.910 | $1.86K | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 183.12 | $0.440 | $80.57 | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?Yes | sell | 768.66 | $0.097 | $74.87 | Dec 5, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?No | buy | 345.99 | $0.877 | $303.43 | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Yes | buy | 237.6 | $0.670 | $159.19 | Dec 3, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No | sell | 136.67 | $0.903 | $123.37 | Dec 3, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Yes | buy | 1.04K | $0.878 | $913.26 | Dec 2, 2025 |
 Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?No | buy | 400 | $0.805 | $322 | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No | buy | 249.99 | $0.447 | $111.86 | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 306.81 | $0.240 | $73.57 | Dec 1, 2025 |
 OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?No | sell | 22 | $0.986 | $21.68 | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes | buy | 1.69K | $0.900 | $1.52K | Nov 30, 2025 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No | buy | 94.72 | $0.350 | $33.15 | Nov 29, 2025 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No | buy | 100 | $0.340 | $34 | Nov 29, 2025 |