Analytics
Resolved Yes on 15 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 72%. Yes opened at 72% on 8 May 2026. Before it settled, the high was 72.5% on 11 May 2026 and the low 54.5% on 12 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 54.5% on 12 May 2026. $32.53K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 19, 8:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 8 May 2026 – 15 May 2026, chart shows 50%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 May 2026 | 72.0% |
| 15 May 2026 | 72.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| uma003 | No | 5K |
| Pokemon001 | No | 3.1K |
| LukeGamma | No | 2K |
| Mellow-Blank | No | 99.96 |
| Avaricious-Noun | No | 89.2 |
| Tonichpro | No | 30.06 |
| TheOnePanda | No | 25 |
| Ricil | No | 13.89 |
| Donvincenso | No | 10 |
| 1xorbis | No | 7.18 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-xauusd-hit-in-may-2026
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