Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 19 points from 24.5% when the market opened on 23 Dec 2025.
Across the 268 daily closes on record from 23 Dec 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (43 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 73.5% on 3 Mar 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%; a month before, 13.5%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 30% on 6 May 2026.
Gold ranks third of the 3 outcomes in “Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026”. S&P 500 leads at 74.5%; Bitcoin is at 18.5%.
$302.81K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $35.76K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.13K bought Yes and $2.31K bought No.
The largest Yes position is pm-maio-2026 with 3.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 36.8K. Ten wallets hold 64.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 268 points, 23 Dec 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Dec 2025 | 24.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 36.82K |
| pm-maio-2026 | Yes | 3.57K |
| namarian999 | Yes | 3.57K |
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/. If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin). Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.
| gambling227 |
| Yes |
| 3.48K |
| luzai | Yes | 3.46K |
| BIGDar | Yes | 3.12K |
| Zptml | No | 3K |
| Nibiru2 | Yes | 2.3K |
| Smart-bettor7 | No | 1.7K |
| thisisnotsatoshi | No | 1.68K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026
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