
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 37.5% on 27 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 98 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 37.5% on 27 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 29 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 18.5% on 28 Sep 2025. $16.72K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 98 points, 27 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2025 | 37.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ggcooks | Yes | 458.33 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 421 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 215 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ghislaine Maxwell is granted a sentence reduction, transfer to a less restrictive facility, or any other formal legal benefit by the U.S. federal government in connection with cooperation or information she provides to U.S. authorities by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Qualifying cooperation may include providing testimony, depositions, or other information to federal prosecutors, law enforcement agencies, or Congress. The benefit must be explicitly linked to such cooperation, either through government statements or a consensus of credible reporting. Examples of qualifying benefits include but are not limited to: - A sentence reduction via Rule 35(b) or similar motion - A transfer to a lower-security facility tied to cooperation - Entry into witness protection A presidential commutation or pardon, will qualify regardless of if directly attributed to cooperation. Changes to her confinement not clearly tied to cooperation will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ghislaine-maxwell-cut-a-deal-with-the-feds-in-2025
| Yes |
| 143.99 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 130 |
| lissartter | Yes | 129.67 |
| SandraHardy4985 | Yes | 114 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 103 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 82 |
| AFreeLunch | Yes | 55.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page