Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 92.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 13 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 50 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2025 to 30 Jan 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 13 Dec 2025 and the lowest 4% on 27 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 28% on 14 Dec 2025. $1.26K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 31, 4:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 30 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | 50.5% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | 7.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.04K |
| paspor | Yes | 362.03 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rates over the same quarter of the previous year % change, based on seasonally adjusted data, in the first release of the "Gross domestic product: detailed economic performance results" press release for Q4 of 2025, expected to be released at the end of January 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If no data for the specified quarter is released by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports "on the same quarter a year earlier (price adjusted)" to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/germany-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025
| Yes |
| 88.33 |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | Yes | 66.51 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 53.55 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 30 |
| nonetouch | Yes | 25 |
| Whywix | Yes | 12.75 |
| polyphony - 24666 | Yes | 4.99 |
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