
Resolved Yes on 19 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 92.8%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 7 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 7 May 2026 to 19 May 2026, the highest close was 92.8% on 19 May 2026 and the lowest 28.5% on 7 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 45 points up, to 83.5% on 10 May 2026. $254.11K traded over the market's life.
127 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 20, 7:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 7 May 2026 – 19 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 May 2026 | 28.5% |
| 19 May 2026 | 92.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 15.71K |
| firebat | No | 8.04K |
| troim | No | 4.5K |
| Keen-Newsstand | No | 3.21K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public. Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gemini-3pt2-released-on
| SHOTHERS | No | 2.51K |
| sunistap | No | 2.18K |
| labistiiia | No | 2K |
| LukeGamma | No | 2K |
| LukeDelta | No | 2K |
| Golden Beacon 67A6 | No | 1.22K |
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