Analytics
Yes is at 77%, up 32 points from 45.5% when the market opened on 10 Jun 2026.
Across the 138 daily closes on record from 10 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 87.5% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 41% on 11 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 84.5%; a month before, 87%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 52.5% on 12 Jun 2026.
$21.05 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.86K since listing. The order book holds $2.04K, with a 8.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 114 trades, $539.11 bought Yes and $203.26 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Ryxon21 with 371 shares; the largest No position is rabbit007 with 510. Ten wallets hold 84.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 23 Dec 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 138 points, 10 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2026 | 45.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 77.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rabbit007 | No | 510 |
| FrozenParasite | No | 405.13 |
| Ryxon21 | Yes | 371.03 |
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market. If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-futuro-nazionale-get-more-votes-than-lega-in-the-next-italian-general-elections-20260609154254296
| Mature-Monsoon |
| Yes |
| 299.98 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 195.23 |
| PrevisionALF | Yes | 181 |
| Haribot | No | 139.45 |
| Lalli928 | No | 84.65 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 72.57 |
| Amber Orbit 79F3 | Yes | 53.47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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