Analytics
Yes is at 2.9%, down 14 points from 17.1% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 25 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 17.1% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 4 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.5%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 3% on 3 Oct 2026.
FMLN ranks fifth of the 11 outcomes in “Which party will gain most seats in El Salvador Legislative Election?”. Nuevas Ideas (NI) leads at 77%; PCN is at 3.9%.
$84.15 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $359.62 since listing. The order book holds $17.71K, with a 4.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 182 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 211.
Trading closes on 1 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 17.1% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 2.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 211.36 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 181.87 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 34.02 |
Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election, compared to before the election. For the purposes of this market, the number of seats a party held before the election will be the number of seats attributed to that party in the official final results of the February 4, 2024 Salvadoran legislative election, as published by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador: Nuevas Ideas (NI) 54, ARENA 2, PCN 2, PDC 1, and Vamos 1. All other parties will be considered to have held 0 seats. Changes to the composition of the Legislative Assembly after the 2024 election, including resignations, replacements, party switches, or changes in parliamentary-group affiliation, will not be considered. A party's seats gained will be calculated as the number of seats attributed to that party in the official results of the 2027 election minus the number of seats it held before the election, as defined above. This figure may be zero or negative. If the results are not known definitively by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. Seats will be counted only where they are attributed to the specified party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador (https://www.tse.gob.sv/).
| cigarettes | No | 20 |
| jackli003 | Yes | 14.85 |
| graynotebook19 | Yes | 0.61 |
| house2001 | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-el-salvador-legislative-election
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