Analytics
“Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure?”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is May 21, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 2 hourly price points from May 15, 2026 to May 16, 2026 (Yes between 0.4% and 18.0%); 34 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 94.6% of the loaded shares; 374 recent public fills from 252 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No |
Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor. This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure. Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred. If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe. If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-figures-f03-robots-run-between-8-and-50-hours-without-failure
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 3.35K |
| Bossy-Dwelling | Yes | 1.25K |
| NowUp | Yes | 1.05K |
| Stonktrader | Yes | 899.4 |
| mildwindow27 | Yes | 220 |
| Shiro.San | Yes | 166.67 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| Clean-Condor-Coverall | Yes | 94.98 |
| day77 | Yes | 90.91 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 55 |