
Resolved Yes on 18 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 36.5%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 15 May 2026. Before it settled, the high was 36.5% on 18 May 2026 and the low 16.5% on 15 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 36.5% on 18 May 2026. $49.11K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 19, 10:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 4 points · 15 May 2026 – 18 May 2026 · axis zoomed to 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 May 2026 | 16.5% |
| 18 May 2026 | 36.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Iamcflex | No | 10K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.35K |
| cripes3 | No | 650.68 |
| GT2RShunter | No | 300 |
| stolto222 | No | 119.99 |
| Youthful-Assistance | No | 111.11 |
| QuantDax | No | 111.11 |
| cristinathearena | No | 104.77 |
| TENETENET | No | 100 |
| natural-intelligence-2 | No | 55.56 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor. This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure. Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes. If Figure officially ends the demonstration before the specified period elapses, this will count as the end of the robots’ runtime, and resolution will be based on the elapsed runtime prior to the official end of the demonstration, regardless of whether a qualifying failure occurred. If the failure or end occurs exactly between two listed timeframes, this market will resolve to the longer timeframe. If the official Figure livestream is interrupted before the end of the specified period, this market will remain open until the period can be evaluated using a continuation livestream or official statements from Figure Robotics, Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett), or the official Figure X account; the interruption will not itself be considered a failure unless Figure explicitly indicates that a qualifying failure occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be Figure's official livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak); however, official statements from Figure Robotics, @adcock_brett, the official Figure X account, or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-long-will-figures-f03-robots-run-without-failure
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