Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?

Resolved

Yes, settled Dec 4, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$540.9K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Dec 4, 2024 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 4 Dec 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 35.5% on 13 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2024 to 4 Dec 2024, the highest close was 100% on 4 Dec 2024 and the lowest 24% on 17 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 89% on 1 Dec 2024. $540.92K traded over the market's life.

55 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 5, 1:19 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 13 Nov 2024 – 4 Dec 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Nov 2024	35.5%
4 Dec 2024	100.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	94.68K
DBonStk	Yes	126.84
Q8i	No	113.33

10 of 55 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The 2024 Irish general election to elect the 34th Dáil is due to be held on Friday, 29 November 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fianna Fáil (FF) wins the most seats in the Dáil Éireann (Ireland's lower house) as a result of the next Irish general election. If voting in the next Irish general election does not occur by December 31, 2024 GMT, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Fianna Fáil (FF), not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Irish Government, specially the Electoral Commission (An Coimisiún Toghcháin (see: https://www.electoralcommission.ie/).