Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 31, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$12.0K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 31, 2026 UTC

Topic roomStrait of Hormuz

Where it stands

Resolved No on 31 Mar 2026.

$12.05K traded over the market's life.

22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 1, 2:16 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 1 point, 28 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Mar 2026	1.8%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.96K
yangguang0511	Yes	1K
Firm-Tailbud	Yes	1K
wxy7766	Yes	286.38
cry.eth2	Yes	283.35
Elementary-Emergence	Yes	267.14
bonebot	Yes	254.95
0xRocket666	Yes	200
SamAltmanFather	Yes	92.59
Belin4ikONE	Yes	51

10 of 22 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.