Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 20% on 10 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 10 Mar 2026 to 24 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 20% on 10 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 18 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 4% on 11 Mar 2026.
69 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 25, 5:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 24 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 20.0% |
| 24 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 51.93K |
| Shallow-Leek | Yes | 2.44K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 2.04K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-this-week-mar-10-16
| Yes |
| 1K |
| D509 | Yes | 1K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 811.08 |
| Tooslime | Yes | 803.31 |
| VX1 | Yes | 757.04 |
| malimujo | Yes | 579.86 |
| Westjeane | Yes | 440 |
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