Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

Resolved

Yes, settled Mar 11, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Mar 11, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 11 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.2%. Yes opened at 48% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 40 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 11 Mar 2026, the highest close was 98.3% on 23 Feb 2026 and the lowest 31% on 3 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 31% on 3 Feb 2026.

59 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 12, 6:19 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 11 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
31 Jan 2026	48.0%
11 Mar 2026	98.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	18.76K
Distorted-Someone	No	1K
orixcrake	No	186.63
pixelmeme	No	178.13

10 of 59 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 versus the data points available for all other Februaries on record. Note: If February 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.