Will FDP win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

politicsResolved

No, settled Sep 21, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.1K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 21, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved No on 21 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 20% on 21 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 21 Aug 2026 to 21 Sep 2026, the highest close was 20% on 21 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 21 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 4% on 22 Aug 2026. $2.07K traded over the market's life.

15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 21 Aug 2026 – 21 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
21 Aug 2026	20.0%
21 Sep 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.86K
caspar1248	Yes	700
e46m3	Yes	310.42

10 of 15 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)