Analytics
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“Will Fábio win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Sergipe Governor Election Winner”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
Trading is open until Oct 4, 2026. As of Sep 16, 4:43 AM, Yes trades at 77.5¢, a 77.5% implied chance, $18.87K traded in the last 24 hours, $689.59 resting in the order book, a 7.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 25 hourly price points from Sep 15, 2026 to Sep 16, 2026 (Yes between 76.5% and 79.0%); 32 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 93.7% of the loaded shares; 219 recent public fills from 98 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-fabio-win-the-2026-sergipe-gubernatorial-election
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.27K |
| GrandeFromage | Yes | 1.89K |
| JAMJAMJAM4 | Yes | 700 |
| DarkFish | Yes | 657.59 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 229.39 |
| sleepymonkey | Yes | 200 |
| Rr55 | Yes | 190.01 |
| longdated-poli | Yes | 103.14 |
| Digital-Boy | No | 87.27 |
| Bleak-Rediscovery-Gherkin | No | 81 |