Analytics
Yes is at 12.5%, down 39 points from 51% when the market opened on 5 Feb 2026.
The high was 85.5% on 10 Feb 2026 and the low 9.5% on 3 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 25.5%; a month ago, 29.5%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 80% on 6 Feb 2026.
↑ 1.22 ranks third of the 10 outcomes in “Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?”. ↓ 1.10 leads at 42%; ↑ 1.20 is at 16.5%.
$634.27 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $324.95, with a 7.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 37 trades, $47.13 bought Yes and $307.56 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Dolba with 133 shares; the largest No position is 0xOTd with 154. Ten wallets hold 89.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 86 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 6, 3:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 220 points · 5 Feb 2026 – 6 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 51.0% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 12.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0xOTd | No | 153.76 |
| Dolba | Yes | 132.73 |
| Sad-Exhibition | No | 105.26 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026
| AJSV |
| Yes |
| 73.85 |
| MPCap20 | No | 63.14 |
| romanew-1-new | Yes | 56.82 |
| Unhealthy-Studio | No | 56.15 |
| WatchTheTape | No | 50.59 |
| VonVonagh | Yes | 50 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 50 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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