Analytics
Yes is at 46%, down 5 points from 51% when the market opened on 5 Feb 2026.
Across the 240 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59% on 2 Jul 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 6 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 45.5%; a month before, 37.5%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 14.5% on 6 Feb 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?”.
$4.02K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $301.53, with a 30.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 101 trades, $554.91 bought Yes and $402.31 bought No.
The largest Yes position is the-contrarian with 472 shares; the largest No position is Dolba with 912. Ten wallets hold 90.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 64 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 240 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 51.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 46.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dolba | No | 912.5 |
| the-contrarian | Yes | 471.92 |
| hnwdgf | Yes | 301.59 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com low price (“L”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle low price is equal to or below the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “L” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026
| Unhealthy-Studio |
| No |
| 246.91 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 160 |
| Sad-Exhibition | Yes | 117.65 |
| Samsara-Tj | Yes | 60 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 56 |
| LolDota | Yes | 50 |
| hopolopop | Yes | 42 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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