Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 13.5%. Yes opened at 17% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 5 Jan 2026, the highest close was 42.5% on 3 Jan 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 2 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 42.5% on 3 Jan 2026. $520.42K traded over the market's life.
101 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 6, 8:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 5 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 17.0% |
| 5 Jan 2026 | 13.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid Summit 4AA9 | No | 7K |
| Frightening-School | No | 5.17K |
| mancamo | No | 907.5 |
| Formal-Deliberation | No | 800 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 591 |
| suicidaltoesucker | No | 519.73 |
| Tango22 | No | 500 |
| TENETENET | No | 499.99 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 476 |
| vmslvv | No | 367.57 |
