Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 3-Jan 10?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 8, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$307.2K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 8, 2025 UTC

Topic roomElon Musk Tweets

Where it stands

Resolved No on 8 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 86%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 4 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 4 Jan 2025 to 8 Jan 2025, the highest close was 23% on 7 Jan 2025 and the lowest 9% on 5 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 14% on 8 Jan 2025. $307.25K traded over the market's life.

26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 9, 8:11 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 4 Jan 2025 – 8 Jan 2025, chart shows 5%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
4 Jan 2025	10.5%
8 Jan 2025	14.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	101.17K
alisha83	Yes	1.84K
enochsmiles	Yes	1.5K
amy65	Yes	1.34K

10 of 26 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

If Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts between 475 (inclusive) and 499 (inclusive) times on X between January 3, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and January 10, 2025, 12:00 PM ET this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.