Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.2%. Yes opened at 5% on 8 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 8 Apr 2025 to 11 Apr 2025, the highest close was 5% on 8 Apr 2025 and the lowest 1.8% on 11 Apr 2025. $60.9K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 13, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 8 Apr 2025 – 11 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Apr 2025 | 5.0% |
| 11 Apr 2025 | 1.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 65.81K |
| Justintx | Yes | 157.04 |
| PokDragon | Yes | 20.41 |
| split | No | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between April 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and April 11, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets
| JDULIA | No | 0.03 |
| eluisflores | Yes | 0.02 |
| Karekken | No | 0.02 |
| ChocolateSTAR | Yes | 0.01 |
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