
Resolved No on 11 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 61%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 8 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 8 Apr 2025 to 11 Apr 2025, the highest close was 39% on 11 Apr 2025 and the lowest 6.5% on 8 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 39% on 11 Apr 2025. $138.14K traded over the market's life.
31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 12, 4:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 8 Apr 2025 – 11 Apr 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Apr 2025 | 6.5% |
| 11 Apr 2025 | 39.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 65.81K |
| Larcho | Yes | 1.33K |
| Swift Falcon 5D73 | Yes | 910 |
| LoraK | Yes | 700 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between April 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and April 11, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets
| Misty Oracle 7123 | Yes | 610 |
| Indigo Horizon 6D35 | Yes | 480 |
| Ivory Meteor F9D7 | Yes | 450 |
| Azure Raven 069F | Yes | 355 |
| Quiet Ledger 330A | Yes | 275 |
| Cobalt Maven 4BA7 | Yes | 275 |
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