Analytics
Yes is at 37%, down 12 points from 49% when the market opened on 18 Oct 2026.
Across the 6 daily closes on record from 18 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026, the highest close was 49% on 18 Oct 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 19 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 10.5% on 19 Oct 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “What will Elon post this week? (October 19 - October 25)”.
$26.55 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $4.1, with a 72.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is JoleFR with 27 shares; the largest No position is Colorless-Attachment with 25.
Trading closes on 26 Oct 2026, 3 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 7:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 18 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | 49.0% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 37.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| JoleFR | Yes | 26.55 |
| Colorless-Attachment | No | 25.1 |
| Limited-Loading | No | 1.45 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-elon-post-this-week-october-19-october-25-20261025
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