Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.5%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 2 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 2 Jul 2025 to 5 Jul 2025, the highest close was 25.5% on 2 Jul 2025 and the lowest 3.5% on 5 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 9.2% on 3 Jul 2025. $1.13M traded over the market's life.
76 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 6, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 2 Jul 2025 – 5 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | 25.5% |
| 5 Jul 2025 | 3.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Aurelius0121 | Yes | 12.5K |
| totentanz | Yes | 8.41K |
| mbreptic | Yes | 2.21K |
| Heise | Yes | 2.04K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This is a market on whether Elon Musk will establish a new political party by a specified date.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-elon-musk-create-a-new-political-party-by
| Lalaf | Yes | 1.6K |
| Jollernes123 | Yes | 1.4K |
| goldhunter | Yes | 999.5 |
| Icy-Neglect | Yes | 919.89 |
| Haoo | Yes | 530 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 482 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
