Analytics
Yes is at 3.6%, down 8.4 points from 12% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 320 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (38 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 22% on 13 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.8% on 14 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.9%; a month before, 1.1%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 20% on 23 Aug 2026.
$28K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $10.96K, with a 2.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 448 trades, $699.25 bought Yes and $5.56K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Shjzjzj with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is Keen Oracle 60E1 with 2.4K. Ten wallets hold 72.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 320 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 12.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Keen Oracle 60E1 | No | 2.36K |
| Shjzjzj | Yes | 1.42K |
| freemath | No | 866.12 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-elon-musk-announce-presidential-run-before-2027
| Perypery |
| Yes |
| 625.76 |
| devin.lawson.77 | No | 567.59 |
| RationalCoco | No | 500 |
| ManneMarco | Yes | 376.5 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 373.01 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 363.31 |
| Weighty-Highway | Yes | 299.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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