Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 42% on 6 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 341 daily closes on record from 6 Feb 2025 to 11 Jan 2026, the highest close was 42% on 6 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 6 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 24.5% on 7 Feb 2025. $314.81K traded over the market's life.
127 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 341 points, 6 Feb 2025 – 11 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2025 | 42.0% |
| 11 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 16.42K |
| ghvgh | Yes | 1.97K |
| Svelte-Marionberry | Yes | 1.43K |
This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001) This market will resolve according to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees between the December 2024 report and the December 2025 report. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the December 2025 value. The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial December 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on January 9, 2026. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/of-jobs-elon-and-doge-cut-in-2025
| Doglegs | Yes | 824.48 |
| juvenalluna1 | Yes | 721.76 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 685.1 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 669.61 |
| Anjun | Yes | 530.5 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 520 |
| Aaaaaguess | Yes | 500 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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