Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 9 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 9 Sep 2025 to 21 Oct 2025, the highest close was 40.5% on 9 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 15 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 0.4% on 10 Sep 2025. $246.73K traded over the market's life.
58 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 22, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 9 Sep 2025 – 21 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2025 | 40.5% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 289.35K |
| Cookedtan | Yes | 22.38K |
| mlferker | Yes | 14.13K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the next appointed Prime Minister of Japan, succeeding Shigeru Ishiba. Any PM formally appointed by the Japanese Emperor will qualify. If no new PM is appointed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No new PM”. If early general elections are called before the new PM has officially been appointed, this market will resolve to “Election called”. The resolution of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-japanese-prime-minister
| Yes |
| 12.77K |
| aureli | Yes | 6.72K |
| untaken | Yes | 4.35K |
| autohedge | Yes | 3.32K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 3.2K |
| NoMoreMister | Yes | 2.93K |
| Ronaldo2100 | Yes | 2.33K |
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