
Resolved No on 4 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 92.5%. Yes opened at 45% on 19 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 47.5% on 24 Apr 2026 and the low 1.1% on 2 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 24% on 27 Mar 2026. $2.6K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 5, 10:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 91 points · 19 Mar 2026 – 4 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Mar 2026 | 45.0% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 7.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 102cats | Yes | 228.29 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 36.92 |
| tweetmaster | Yes | 24 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Andrew Tate or Tristan Tate is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/either-tate-brother-arrested-by
| Neat-Robot | Yes | 17.99 |
| Blaorra | Yes | 15 |
| Nexuus | Yes | 14 |
| Worse-Scenario | Yes | 10 |
| DOG | Yes | 9.33 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
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